Sunday 21 December 2014

Theme's for investing in 2015

Dear all,

2014 has been a very rewarding for indian equities, however i believe that more gains are to be made in 2015, however one should choose the sectors wisely, one may not expect the index to do that well, however few sectors will benefit, and will outperform.

The sectors are as follows:

* Information technology
* Pharma
* Chemicals
* FMCG
* PSU Banks
Reasons for outperformance: IT to do well, because of reasonable valuations, one should pick good companies with steady growth, like Eclerx, KPIT tech, HCL tech, & NIIT tech from current levels, expect about 30-35% returns from them next year.
Pharma to outperform because of steady growth, and many drugs going off patent in the US, like Sun Pharma, Cadila & Dr Reddy's for next year, one can expect them to give a return of 25%+ in 2015.
Chemicals Space is interesting as the sector will benefit from lower commodity prices, like Akzo nobel in paints, Rallis & UPL from insecticides sector  from the current levels.
Like FMCG for assured growth, despite of the sector being richly valued, like Godrej Consumer, and Jyothy labs, latter being the top pick in the space because of attractive valuations.
PSU Banks will outperform the private peers because of easing interest rates, and their cheap valuations. Syndicate, OBC, Canara & BoB are the top picks in the PSU bank space.

Friday 25 April 2014

Trade with caution, Nifty may be headed for a deep correction

Looking at the recent rally, from 6000 to 6870 which was yesterdays high, nifty seems to be tiring out, & reasons for correction are plenty :
1. Divergence on the RSI
2. advance decline ratio is 1:1, which is not the case when market is roaring.
3. Elliott wave may be unfolding into diagonal triangle in its 5th wave..
4. Sky rocketing valuations.
5. Weak Macros, poor monsoons & tapering.

Smart Money is distributing with every rise in the Nifty, I believe we should go short below 6700, for a target of 6450. If one is  an aggressive trader keep the stop of 6870 and short the index.
IT sector looks great for investing, Infy looks great around 3150 , dont expect it to go below 3000, Wipro also looks interesting it should bottomout around 510-500, dont see it going below 500.

Best Regards
Ashutosh Mishra

Mob: +91 9743374152